The Role of the Relationship between the Price Dynamics of Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) in Managing Operational Risks in the Forex Market through the Support of the Hawks Foundation for the Period (2014-2024)

Sarav Jamal Yousif; Shivan Salih Narmo; Lect. Rondik Salih Zekr; Haval Bankin Qasim Kittani

doi:10.35696/q2c59f02

Authors

Sarav Jamal Yousif مؤلف
Shivan Salih Narmo مؤلف
Lect. Rondik Salih Zekr مؤلف
Haval Bankin Qasim Kittani مؤلف https://orcid.org/0009-0009-2939-916X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.35696/q2c59f02

Keywords:

Gold, Silver, Hawkes Process, Forex

Abstract

This research aims to study the role of the relationship between the dynamics of precious metal price changes in the Forex market, supported by the Hawks process, in economic growth over the period (2014-2024). The study utilizes the Hawks model, which is used to evaluate events related to price patterns and spikes. It also aims to provide managers and decision-makers with sufficient knowledge and the ability to understand market shifts and imbalances through an operations research model linked to the Hawks process. In this way, liquidity and economic growth can be identified. Furthermore, the analysis showed that gold and silver interact differently with each other. Additional analysis revealed that silver has a higher level of self-stimulation compared to gold, meaning that silver price spikes last longer than gold price spikes. Moreover, it was found that price shocks in silver affect the price of gold 1.19 times, while the impact of gold price spikes on silver was minimal. This will help capital decision-makers understand the nature of these two metals. It has been proven that during periods of financial crisis, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the prices of both metals rose, confirming their status as safe-haven assets. The study concluded that the price of silver precedes the price of gold, and that any change in the price of silver leads to changes in the price of.

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